Mark Reilly Strong Island Photo, Articles OTHER

David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". These are the bellwether counties. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. But it's also not unprecedented. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Until this year. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Trump won 18 of the 19. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. But that's no longer the case. There are 391 such counties. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. It is easy to gloss over this. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. 12. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Will That Last?]. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. That's 14 in a row. It almost became religious.". Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Read about our approach to external linking. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Really stop reading. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Seriously. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? (Go to the bottom of the page. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Their concerns are real. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. So, where are the bellwether counties? (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. But it's still indicative of widespread support. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. "They followed through the whole four years. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Subscribe to breaking updates Trump won the other 18 counties. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Their emotions and decision making process are real. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Until this year. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Lets find a coin, and flip it. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. 10. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic All rights reserved. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. What are your thoughts on this article? If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Outstanding. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Nobody forgot about politics.". (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. It also backed Gov. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama.